Evaluating strategic choices & long-term investments

Energy company


Our client in the energy sector had held a solid strategic position in the energy system for more than half a century. They play a crucial role in the shift towards a carbon-neutral energy system. However, due to the several significant changes in the markets and several uncertainties affecting the market development, our client decided to systematically evaluate how to future-proof their business and investments in the long run.

Success criteria

  1. Identify a broad spectrum of changes, that may shift the operating conditions into a new direction

  2. Develop a sophisticated decision analysis model to evaluate strategic options in different plausible future conditions

  3. Identify strategic choices that are robust to changes and create the most value in terms of long term competitive position 

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Our client had four important choices to be made, significantly affecting the company's future. We developed a sophisticated evaluation model to analyse and understand the value and impact of different choices on the company's competitive position in the long run.

The time horizon for the option evaluation was more than a decade. Therefore, we needed to focus on analysing and mapping the key uncertainties that could shift the operating conditions into a new direction. Using Swanlake scenario modelling methodology, we identified more than 5000 plausible future scenarios. We prioritised the four most credible yet different scenarios to support the evaluation of strategic options. 

Our client had four important choices to be made, significantly affecting the company's future. We developed a sophisticated evaluation model to analyse and understand the value and impact of different choices on the company's competitive position in the long run. The complex decision-making situation was divided into sub-tasks. Experts from different domains evaluated the strategic choices through seven evaluation criteria and four future success criteria across all future scenarios.

As a result, we developed recommendations and rationale for strategic moves, valued in total at more than half a billion euros. 

As a result, we developed recommendations and rationale for strategic moves, valued in total at more than half a billion euros.

The future-back approach was a powerful tool to overcome the cognitive disposition towards maintaining the status quo, and strengthen the leadership team's commitment to act upon a shared future.

Discussing and evaluating choices systematically and analytically removed uncertainty and created alignment among the experts and the leadership team.


The future-back approach was a powerful tool to overcome the cognitive disposition towards maintaining the status quo and strengthened the leadership team's commitment to act upon a shared future. Furthermore, using a longer time horizon for evaluating the impact of different choices helped highlight the pressing need for change. As a result, the client could actively pursue a forerunner position versus following the competitors. 


The recommended four strategic choices created the company an inspiring new, resilient future based on the company's strengths and updated with the requirements of future business. Most of all, with the recommended choices and acts, the company can take an active role in affecting future developments.

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What customers say

“Swanlake supported us with their analytical and comprehensive approach during our strategy process. With Swanlake, we were able to combine four major strategic questions to the changing operating environment. As an output, we gained a holistic suggestion for decision makers. The collaboration with the team was very fluent and the project as a whole was well managed and efficient.”

— Executive Board member, Finnish energy company