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Resilient future for sustainable food industry with scenarios

Group of leading food companies

Since 2020, Covid-19, the Ukrainian war, extreme weather, and trade tensions have severely disrupted the global food industry. Our client was a group of international and domestic brands in the food industry. They wanted to understand the range of alternative directions the industry might take to support strategy work and utilise foresight to identify new business opportunities and risks.

Success criteria

  1. Understand the overall food industry market and what directions it might take.

  2. Gain an outside-in view of current market and policy-making

  3. Support long-term strategy making by creating new ideas and testing existing plans


Our client wanted to utilize scenarios in understanding the possible development paths of the market and find robust strategies good in all scenarios.

Together with the client, we analyzed the market, policy landscape and macro-level drivers such as consumer behaviour and preferences. 

With the help of a mathematical model, we came up with more than 30 000 scenarios and selected four of those for further analysis.

We analyzed the impact of each scenario on strategic decision-making in a series of company internal & external partner meetings.

We identified which opportunities our client should take and how to mitigate the potential negative business impacts to strengthen the company’s position in the future.

Our recommendations had 3 main themes: Competence & capability development, R&D and Ecosystems & policy making.


We identified robust actions valuable in all of the scenarios. During the project, we also found ways how the client can shape the markets towards the company’s preferred direction, such as actions in policy-making, ecosystem building and financing.

In addition, the scenarios helped the industry experts identify new uncertainties and prepare for them in advance. 

The scenarios helped the client think about the development of the industry from new perspectives and challenge current assumptions. 

The client was pleased with the results, and our collaboration continues in foresight work.


What customers say

"Our work together was very useful. We found new angles and got fresh ideas that we were looking for."

— Project owner, innovation company

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